Monday, December 1, 2008

It's happened...we're past Peak, courtesy of the credit crisis

Gail the Actuary (Gail Tverberg) has made a post on the Oil Drum which lists many oil and gas projects which will now not go ahead due to credit availability problems. From now on it is highly unlikely there will be increases in world total liquid fuel production year on year. While demand is undoubtedly falling due to the onset of the world-wide recession, if there is any increase in demand in the future it will not be possible to meet it from here on out. So now we are post Peak Oil.

The implications of this, coupled with the precipitous decline in manufacturing both here and elsewhere due to the financial crisis, are profound. Whatever economy and society we rebuild in the years ahead will begin to diverge radically from the one we've all been used to for the past sixty years. This will not stop our leaders and many of us from trying to resuscitate the drowning body of industrial civilisation, but such efforts will almost certainly be wasted.

There are arguments for ameliorating the distress of those most affected by the changes coming down the line, but how do you subsidise the pending insolvency of the majority of the population in an industrial civilisation?

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