Friday, August 14, 2009

According to the Mainstream the recession is over, but there are dissenters

One hundred economists, members of a profession which has always clad itself in rainments of science and mathematics but which is increasingly looking like a cross between advertising and astrology have said the recession is over in the USA (and that runs on to Australia), according to a couple of surveys which The Automatic Earth is reporting. However the reality-based and saturnine Nasim Nicholas Taleb, author of that wonderful book The Black Swan, calls phooey on this.

Recessions are "irregular" for most people and most economists. In our highly controlled Western Industrial culture, death, illness and economic downturns are not seen as an inevitable part of existence but as irregularities. This will allow our 100 economists some wriggle room when the recession returns in force: they "didn't see it coming", it's "totally unprecedented" and "not following the rules". And just as some primitive tribes blame every death on witchcraft, we will see the search for scapegoats when they once again end up with egg on their face. It's another sign of the primitive nature of our supposedly sophisticated world-view.

No comments: